The Deal You Never Heard of Can Keep the New Free World Together
Why Australia Should Encourage EU–CPTPP Dialogue - Before China Sets Terms
The moment to shape a trade alliance is before it's decided, not after.
Australia faces a quite monumental strategic choice. The EU has not yet applied formally to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, and yes, even the title makes you sleepy), but senior Brussels officials — backed by Sweden’s recent proposal — are now exploring structured dialogue toward possible accession, mirroring talks forecast by Ursula von der Leyen amid global trade tensions. If we cannot rely on the US, and of course not on China, then the best solution is to leave behind the broken rules-based world order and create a new one.
Make the kind of world you want to live in, instead of having one you don’t thrust upon you.
CPTPP is a high-standard trade pact among 12 nations, representing 14.4% of global GDP, and covering significant portions of Australian trade. Australia's two-way trade with CPTPP partners makes up nearly 35% of total trade.
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If the EU eventually joins, its ~AUD 28 trillion GDP and 450 million consumers would enlarge CPTPP by ~60–65%, making it the largest rules-based trade bloc globally.
The economic dividend is tangible.
LSE and World Bank modelling predicts an across-the-board GDP boost of 0.4%, translating into AUD 10–12 billion in additional annual GDP for Australia. Not pocket change. It would probably be the biggest boost to Australian GDP ever.
Sectors currently blocked by EU tariffs — beef, lamb, dairy, wine — could unlock up to AUD 7 billion in new annual exports.
Services firms would gain legal protection and potential access to the EU’s AUD 4.8 trillion public procurement market under CPTPP digital and investment chapters.
EU foreign direct investment in Australia totalled AUD 124 billion in 2020 — second only to the UK. CPTPP-style regulations would strengthen investor confidence and channel more capital flows.
Geopolitics poses a clear priority.
China formally applied to join CPTPP in September 2021. Australia opposes this — citing Beijing’s coercive trade actions and weak compliance mechanisms.
After all, you don’t invite the bull into the china shop.
If China enters before the EU, CPTPP risks internal realignment — toward China’s norms rather than those of rule-based democracies. This would erode its credibility and strategic value. Bringing any hegemon into the community would destroy it; rules out the window and extortionists to the front. It would destroy the CPTPP.
By contrast, the EU brings legal discipline, enforcement capacity, and shared democratic norms — the very attributes that protect against such tilt.
Current status:
Brussels has launched structured cooperation with CPTPP members; planned ministerial dialogue in July; and built momentum across member states. However, formal accession discussions have not begun. The process remains exploratory.
The Last Word
Australia must act now. Encouraging and supporting the EU’s dialogue transition into formal accession negotiations ensures CPTPP aligns with democratic, legalistic, high-standard values. Silence would cede leadership to China.
This is not abstract ideology. It is pragmatic strategy. It’s a potential enormous windfall to Australian business. It anchors Australia’s economic future in alliances that reinforce, not undermine, sovereignty and prosperity. It protects Australia from the bullying, cajoling, and extortion of major powers.
Instead of crying about the destruction of the rules-based world order, make a new one before losing the opportunity. The two large powers will seek to block and complain; joining up means silencing both.
Nothing says free trade block better than having no bludgeoning members.
The opportunity won’t last. Dialogue becomes momentum only once others move. Encourage the EU’s starting gun; back high-standard trade before someone else decides the finish line.
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If this resonated with you, you can power the next one with a tip. Even €2 helps me carve time for deeper stories.
👉 Support by buying me a coffee ☕ Think of it as funding the journalism you wish existed more often.